DAVID CAMERON is in Brussels for the endgame of his nice “renegotiation” of Britain’s membership of the EU. For over three years this deadline has loomed over the prime minister–never much less so than within the frenetic, closing weeks, throughout which Mr Cameron has focused on little else, shuttling around the continent urgent the flesh and testing the bounds of the diplomatically achievable. About now the prime minister and EU leaders are sitting down to debate his asks. The European Council will then return to the topic tomorrow morning (over an “English breakfast” or maybe “brunch”, we’re informed). By lunchtime Mr Cameron will most likely have a deal.
If many are treating this with portentous language, that is to be anticipated. Donald Tusk, the council president, appears as liable to this because the media hordes gathering to report the summit; “to be, or to not be collectively, that’s the query”, he tweeted a fortnight in the past on the publication of a draft deal. At this time he hailed the “make or break summit”. And honest sufficient, one would possibly assume. Mr Cameron, together with Mr Tusk and Angela Merkel, have staked their credibility on a deal that the prime minister can promote to his social gathering and British voters within the run as much as the nation’s in-out referendum.
In the meantime a few of their companions (France, the Poles and the Belgians, amongst others) mutter ominously about Britain looking for to cherry-pick one of the best bits of EU membership; of attempting to dine à la carte as a substitute of taking the menu du jour. If Mr Cameron is seen to have been too profitable his renegotiation may embolden Eurosceptics (just like the Danish Individuals’s Get together and Different für Deutschland), agitating for his or her governments to placed on an analogous show of brinksmanship.
The dramatic rigidity is heightened by the uncertainty that swirls concerning the particulars of the package deal they may emerge with tomorrow afternoon. Will Mr Cameron safe a dedication to treaty change enshrining curbs on migrant advantages? For a way lengthy might these curbs apply? How a lot regulatory wriggle room will the prime minister safe for the Metropolis of London? And maybe essentially the most delicate query (and definitely the one closest to the hearts of Mr Cameron and George Osborne): will the “emergency brake” defending non-eurozone members have actual tooth, and be in Britain’s fingers to tug?
However regular on, now. Mr Cameron’s renegotiation might have important continental ramifications, significantly if it units a precedent tempting different international locations to observe (unsurprisingly, Mr Tusk and Mrs Merkel have been at pains to restrict the opt-outs and concessions to areas esoteric to Britain). And the debates throughout the desk in Brussels tonight and tomorrow morning will definitely illuminate the good tensions between totally different visions of Europe’s future. But what impact it’ll have domestically, on the good query of the summit–will Britain keep or leave–is much less clear.
No matter Mr Cameron comes again with tomorrow (he’s anticipated to carry a cupboard assembly tomorrow afternoon, presumably adopted by a broadcast to the nation confirming that the referendum can be on June twenty third), it stands no probability of persuading agency Eurosceptics to again membership. Likewise, a garbage deal ought to do little to dissuade these already satisfied that being within the EU is an effective factor. Strategies that Michael Gove, Theresa Could and Boris Johnson, the three huge undecided beasts of the Tory Get together, is perhaps swayed by the exact particulars of the ultimate renegotiation is, to borrow a time period from the latter, an inverted pyramid of piffle.
So what the prime minister achieves in Brussels can be attention-grabbing and will have an effect on the temper in his social gathering. However at finest it’ll present him with a modestly helpful, symbolic prop with which to coax half-interested swing voters to carry their noses and vote In. As components influencing the result of the referendum go, it’s maybe someplace within the second dozen; leagues beneath the state of the migrant disaster and the British economic system when voters come to solid their ballots. Brexit is a large geopolitical query. However don’t mistake it with the a lot much less important, and solely partially associated, Brenegotiation.
