THE American president touched down in London final evening for a three-day go to. Formally his journey has to do with wishing the queen a contented ninetieth birthday. In apply it’s a rigorously worded bid to nudge British voters in direction of a Stay vote within the EU referendum on June twenty third. His lobbying started this morning with a column within the Each day Telegraph (seemingly chosen for being essentially the most high-brow Eurosceptic outlet) underneath the headline: “As your buddy, let me say that the EU makes Britain even higher.” This afternoon he’ll give a press convention in Downing Road the place he’s anticipated to reiterate these arguments.
The Go away camp is livid on the intervention, calling it a diplomatic impropriety. Boris Johnson has a counter-column within the Solar in the present day urging the president to butt out and, fairly oddly, insinuating that as a “half-Kenyan” his views mirror resentment of Britain’s colonial previous. In fact that is bitter grapes. For a lot of on the Go away facet quitting the EU is a primary step to constructing a brand new Anglophone alliance, led by Britain and America and lengthening throughout the Commonwealth. How ungrateful, how unAmerican, how un-Anglo-Saxon of the president to reject this thrilling fantasy.
However most of all they’re offended as a result of his feedback will harm their trigger. America’s president is in style in Britain. Brexiteers know that voters will take his arguments critically: essentially the most resonant but of the line-up of credible, authoritative voices—the Financial institution of England, the IMF, enterprise leaders, former prime ministers—whose warnings kind a gentle drum-beat that ought to keep Brexit-inclined voters’ fingers on referendum day.
Mr Obama’s feedback stand out amongst these not only for their weight, however for his or her optimism. “Try to be proud that the EU has helped unfold British values and practices”, he famous in his column: “The European Union doesn’t average British affect—it magnifies it.” Different interventions have centered extra on the disadvantages of Brexit: the chance to development and jobs, questions unanswered by the Go away camp, the risks of a fragmenting Western alliance in unsure instances. And that’s proper. Britons aren’t pure pro-Europeans. There isn’t a latent zeal for European unity lurking, able to be unleashed, just below the floor of British society. Nervous urging from eager Europhiles that the Stay marketing campaign present extra “ardour” concerning the joys of European integration are, I’m afraid, too optimistic concerning the public’s urge for food for such entreaties. “Britain Stronger in Europe” has carried out the main focus teams, commissioned the polling and examined out its messages and on that knowledgeable foundation is concentrating on the dangers of Brexit and the transactional advantages of membership—a case, in different phrases, that rings true to a sceptical viewers.
But there may be nonetheless a spot within the pro-European toolbox for the kind of arguments put forth by Mr Obama. For too lengthy the Go away crowd have gotten away with portray the pro-Europeans because the gloom-mongers, the individuals who suppose Britain so small and insignificant that it must hug tight to its sclerotic neighbours. On this imaginative and prescient, the daring and bold nationwide technique is to interrupt unfastened and reemerge on the world stage. “Britannia can rule the waves once more!” as one Brexiteer put it at a debate I not too long ago attended.
The retort, which the Stay camp may maybe make extra usually, is the one put by the president. Britain has lengthy pushed the EU in a liberal, outward-looking route. Consider the Lisbon Agenda to make the EU extra aggressive within the final decade, the eastwards enlargement (probably the most vital triumphs of British overseas coverage in many years), the Iran nuclear deal, the strikes in direction of TTIP in the present day. As president, Mr Obama has broadly uncared for the transatlantic relationship, however tellingly even he has been moved to induce Britain to not carry out such a self-mutilating transfer (damaging to his nation too insofar as a dynamic and efficient Europe is in American pursuits) as to throw all this away.
And all that’s with out Britain a lot bothering to make use of the EU to challenge its pursuits. In contrast with its neighbours, it does little to push its brightest directors and politicians into the European establishments. Till not too long ago Mr Cameron had few actual Europe consultants in Downing Road (examine that to the German chancellory, which has nearly a complete wing dedicated to Europe coverage). Aside from a handful of Europhile and Europhobe die-hards, few MPs are a lot within the EU; attendance on the European Scrutiny Committee in Parliament within the 2014-15 parliamentary session was simply 48.7%. A few of David Cameron’s European insurance policies—pulling out of the European Individuals’s Social gathering, his botched veto in 2011, threats to endorse a Brexit vote final yr—have hardly helped the nation promote its agenda in Brussels.
Given how a lot Britain manages to affect the EU regardless of all this, what it may obtain if it truly tried? If it resolved, over ten or fifteen years, to remake the union within the British picture? That ambition is much less far-fetched than it would look. New geopolitical and safety threats play into Britain’s long-standing want to make the EU extra outward-looking and security-conscious. The pressing must make Europe extra aggressive—an agenda now being championed even by the French and Italian governments—equally responds to conventional British priorities. For all of the discuss of integrating the euro zone, fellow northern European member states will wish to guarantee they don’t seem to be merely yoked to poorer, extra sluggish southern economies. Different non-Euro-zone states might be cautious of caucusing and wish to make sure that the EU continues to function at 28 fairly than 19. These developments create political alternatives for Britain.
Certainly, euro zone or no euro zone, no EU state has an computerized declare to management. France is a giant navy energy however has a struggling financial system. Germany is an industrial powerhouse however reluctant to guide on defence issues. Neither has a worldwide monetary centre to rival London. In a Europe of overlapping and concentric circles, maybe Britain, an unsentimental member state with one foot in Europe’s centre, one in its periphery and a watch on the broader world, is best-placed to guide.
The demographic and financial shifts of the approaching years additionally bear consideration. By 2030, based on some estimates, Britain would be the largest financial system within the union. It’s also on monitor to overhaul Germany and change into its largest member state. That in itself ought to pay dividends—numerical, within the Parliament and establishments—and symbolic.
For the explanations defined above, I’m not satisfied that every one this needs to be the spine of the Stay case, helpful although Mr Obama’s intervention in the present day is. However it does give the pro-Europeans one thing with which to parry Eurosceptic defeatism (“Britain has just about no affect in Brussels” bellowed a latest Specific headline) and accusations of speaking down Britain’s prospects and ambitions. Maybe the second at which to make this argument in full might be after a Stay vote (if certainly that’s the referendum’s final result). If his gamble pays off Mr Cameron may have a window by which to reframe his nation’s place in Europe and describe a brand new course, earlier than eyes flip to the subsequent massive political drama: the battle to switch him. A path forwards to sceptical, pragmatic British management in a continent that badly wants it might be a legacy certainly. As Mr Obama may put it: “Sure we are able to!”
