“I DON’T need to stab the prime minister within the again—I need to stab him within the entrance so I can see the expression on his face. You’d should twist the knife, although, as a result of we would like it again for [George] Osborne.” This quote, attributed to a Conservative MP by the Sunday Occasions yesterday, signifies the headache that awaits the prime minister past June twenty third. Because the referendum nears, the probabilities of a Tory management disaster afterwards, even within the occasion of a Stay vote, appear to be rising. Andrew Bridgen and Nadine Dorries, two perennial rebels, have insisted that he’ll face a problem. Or as their nameless colleague places it: “All now we have to do is catch the prime minister with a stay boy or a useless woman and we’re away.”
What’s Mr Cameron to do? Plainly within the occasion of a Stay vote on June twenty third, Downing Avenue will delay its much-heralded “reconciliation reshuffle” till after the summer time, to stop MPs and ministers from pocketing their preferments and instantly opening hearth on the prime minister. Within the intervening interval it is going to be tempting for him, having spent the previous weeks alienating many in his social gathering by telling them truths about Brexit that they don’t need to hear, to swing again in a drastically Eurosceptic course and shore up his place. He may decide some fights on the European Council summit on June twenty eighth, for instance.
Tempting, however ill-advised. Nonetheless decisive any Stay win (the Brexiteers are claiming 60% is the minimal the prime minister should obtain to keep away from revolt) it’s unlikely that the Europe query will vanish. The Go away marketing campaign will do every part it may well to assert the general public was misled and can demand a brand new referendum. Each future European summit will ignite the Conservative Get together’s nervous system. It could effectively elect a pro-Brexit chief as Mr Cameron’s successor. Pandering to such sentiments will solely strengthen them, and persuade their propagators that they had been proper all alongside.
But if he wins—regardless of the margin; ignore Brexiteer nonsense about 59% for Stay one way or the other not counting—Mr Cameron can have a pro-European mandate. Stronger In, the official anti-Brexit outfit, has campaigned on the premise that Britain shouldn’t simply keep within the EU however work to make it higher. The prime minister can have the accountability to make good on that pledge. Furthermore, he can have the chance. Britain’s voice in Brussels has been weakened by the build-up to the referendum. However the means of renegotiation strengthened Mr Cameron’s private relationship along with his fellow leaders. And a Stay victory (particularly at a time when the EU is struggling in different respects) will show to his companions Mr Cameron can persuade and ship. Nonetheless fleetingly, he will probably be a winner.
So to profit from this chance, make good on his marketing campaign guarantees and assist quell discuss of a second referendum, the prime minister should, on any Stay win, launch a British initiative to make Europe extra dynamic. Brexiteers discuss of June twenty fourth as “independence day”. In the event that they lose, Mr Cameron should make it “interdependence day”: utilizing the momentum the outcome generates to advertise mandatory reforms that may make Europe work higher for Britain and its neighbours: finishing the only market in providers, reducing crimson tape and advancing the TTIP negotiations.
This could begin with Mr Cameron taking a while from calming his backbenchers in Westminster to tour Europe’s capitals to construct a brand new alliance for reform with Britain at its hub—constructing on his earlier “renegotiation” appeal offensive, however this time extra collaborative and long-termist. Within the likes of Matteo Renzi, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel, in addition to Britain’s conventional allies within the Nordic and Baltic areas, Mr Cameron has pure allies. On the similar time he may launch initiatives to spice up Britain’s structural affect in Brussels. Extra British graduates and high civil servants could possibly be inspired and supported to use for jobs within the establishments. To boost the usual of Britain’s MEPs, Mr Cameron may set up an “A-list” of proficient Conservatives forward of picks for the European Parliament election in 2019 (and encourage Labour to do the identical). Downing Avenue may get a correct European division to enhance the standard and amount of EU recommendation obtainable to the prime minister.
Nonetheless, the prime minister can’t be anticipated to do that alone. It’s going to take a preferred initiative to help him when he does the best factor and chide him when he offers in to the Eurosceptics. Thankfully, such a physique—cross-party, decentralised and united by its dedication to an efficient, energetic British position in Europe—will exist already on June twenty fourth: the Stay marketing campaign. From its management to its native teams, in Britain and overseas, it is a ready-made, non-partisan community, backed by donors massive and small, able to insisting forcefully on better British engagement and assertiveness on the continent. Will probably be too straightforward for a Stay win to be hole: for noisy Eurosceptic campaigners efficiently to spin it as a betrayal, for the pro-European alliances constructed up over the previous months to disintegrate and for the mandate to “keep in and make it higher” to go forgotten.
And what if Go away wins? In that case, all of the extra cause for its opponents to stay collectively. What Britain would or ought to appear like exterior the EU is unclear. The vary of trade-offs that Britons should navigate is conveyed by the variety of totally different “fashions” the Brexiteers have cited: Norway, Switzerland, Canada, Albania… Will freedom of motion proceed? What standing will EU residents in Britain have? What kind of buying and selling relationship will Britain have with its neighbours, and at what regulatory value? The variations between between the totally different doable visions of a post-Brexit nation are enormous and can want debating. That calls for intense political effort from these dedicated to protecting Britain as related and engaged in Europe as doable, one which the prevailing Stronger In marketing campaign will, even in defeat, be completely positioned to orchestrate. With luck, it won’t come to that. However regardless of the outcome on June twenty third, Stay should battle on.
