A Russian invasion of Ukraine has repercussions across the world. However, a Kremlin move would have far-reaching consequences.
Experts fear it would cause unrest in Japan, disrupt supply lines and the global financial system, and weaken the West’s credibility.
If an incursion occurs, it’s unknown what form it would take — and guessing Putin’s objectives is a dangerous game. A former British ambassador to Belarus, Nigel Gould-Davies is now a senior fellow for Russia and Eurasia at the International Institute for Strategic Research (IISS).
Analysts believe that the efficacy of a NATO-led reaction can determine the length and scope of any invasion.
However, any Russian transfer would test Western nations’ commitment and raise financial and security concerns.
“This is the worst European security calamity since the 1980s,” Gould-Davies said.
For years, “Russia and the West have clashed fundamentally on ideology,” said James Nixey, head of the Russia-Eurasia program at London think tank Chatham House.
“Now Russia is ready to escalate the ante,” he said. “It’s a real-world issue with global consequences.”
A new front in Europe
The threat of a Russian move into Ukraine has increased the West’s rhetoric.
“Extreme punishments” are possible, US President Joe Biden told CNN Tuesday. Following an attack, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said his country will contribute to any fresh NATO deployment, while French President Emmanuel Macron said “the related cost would be extremely high” if Putin moves.
“The size of the global response depends on Russia’s entrance into Ukraine,” Nixey said. While many observers are cautiously optimistic that a full-scale war would be avoided, “I have been wrong before—as most Russia watchers have.”
The most immediate consequences outside Ukraine will be felt in the eastern European and Baltic states, where a belligerent Russia may well be waiting.
“Ukraine borders many NATO members. This isn’t just a nearby event that may have spillover effects — their safety is in jeopardy. ” Gould-Davies.
“If Russia is permitted, or not deterred, from redrawing boundaries again, then certainly Russia will learn from that—where next?” said Nixey.
The NATO reaction would therefore be crucial, and countries in the firing line would quickly see an increase in troop deployment. Up to 8,500 US soldiers are on high alert for a possible deployment to southeastern Europe, according to Pentagon spokesman John Kirby. Three US commanders familiar with the negotiations told CNN the US and allies may send more troops to Romania, Bulgaria, and Hungary in the coming days.
Ukraine is not a NATO member, so the organization would not send troops there. A substantial force presence would likely remain along Europe’s eastern rim as long as Russia possessed Ukrainian land, evoking memories of a Chilly Conflict-era barrier separating east and west.
“There should be a deterrent reaction all alongside that NATO front line… and a whole warfighting strategy around that,” stated Neil Melvin, director of international security studies at the Royal United Providers Institute (RUSI).
“In Europe, this could be huge because we’re so far from thinking in these terms,” he continued. Melvin said. It will need “large enough forces to battle for a lengthy period, usher in new forces from the US, [and] to struggle with cyber aspects.”
“A huge change.”
The economic consequences of an invasion are uncertain, but there are a few possible side effects that have worried experts since the Russian force buildup near the Ukrainian border became apparent.
Immediately, a disruption in Ukrainian agricultural production may impact food supplies.
The country is one of the world’s four major grain exporters, and it is expected to account for around a sixth of global maize imports in the next five years, according to the International Grains Council.
More concerning is the possible impact on energy supplies and the ramifications of strong Western sanctions on Russia following an incursion.
“If you’re talking about a major conflict involving one of the world’s largest energy providers and a critical transit nation for the remainder of Europe,” Gould-Davies stated.
Russia produces almost 30% of the EU’s pure fuel, with its supplies playing a major role in energy generation and domestic heating throughout central and eastern Europe.
The International Power Company said Wednesday that Russia has contributed to a gasoline shortage in Europe by reducing shipments and that it has recently put supply pressure on Moldova.
“Russia has recently exploited and exacerbated global energy supply and pricing difficulties,” Gould-Davies said. “May they weigh the cost of something more severe?”
The warfare in Japanese Europe may generate or aggravate the expense of dwelling issues in a lot of nations.
The danger in Europe is that Russia would be eager to cope with a European market rupture, given its recent shift of fuel and coal supplies to China.
“An endless shock to [Europe’s] financial system, because they will have to do something else,” Melvin said. If states are forced to scramble for energy sources, this might impede plans for a nuclear phase-out in some areas of the continent.
The Biden administration has been preparing for a Russian invasion, anticipating fuel shortages and a global economic upheaval, top administration officials said Tuesday.
Following a digital meeting with the leaders of the US, UK, Italy, France, Germany, Poland, the EU, and NATO, the European Commission said that the EU is now working on a “wide range of sectoral and individual penalties.” Biden told CNN he expected “important financial sanctions.”
Severe penalties targeting major Russian banks, the oil and gas industry, and technology imports are expected. But the effects on Europe and the rest of the globe are palpable.
“Anytime you apply sanctions, you put high costs on the target— but you also risk harming yourself, your friends, and allies,” said Nathan Grossman, the Trump administration’s acting undersecretary for civilian security, democracy, and human rights.
While targeted sanctions on Russian individuals and companies have been employed since Russia’s 2014 invasion of Crimea, Melvin says “a significant financing link” between Russia and the West remains vulnerable.
He continued that it is unclear how far these sanctions will go and how far the Russian banking system will become.
A wary world
Experts say the impact of an invasion, and particularly the Western response, will be felt globally. Some fear that any Russian success may inspire other states involved in border conflicts.
“China will be looking closely for lessons about Western determination,” Gould-Davies said. “The Taiwanese will benefit from it, as will everyone living near a powerful leader,” Nixey concurred. China’s governing Chinese-language group social gathering (CCP) regards the island as a part of its territory and has not ruled out military pressure to capture it.
That setting underscores how the US reaction to the Ukraine tragedy may shape global perceptions for an era.
“We’d see ripple effects for years, if not decades,” if Russia pulls off a successful transfer, Gross sales said. “That will show all tyrants that the US is a paper tiger.”
He said “rogue governments like North Korea and Iran” may seek to profit from such a scenario. However, Sales continued, “there is a situation where the US and NATO come out of this calamity with increased credibility.” Should a strong response induce a Russian retreat,
If tensions rise due to a Russian incursion, the US may reconsider its role in Europe. “They now have a very clear political division between a world policeman role, as espoused by Biden, and only doing what is in the US interests,” Melvin said.
While many of the ramifications of a Russian transfer into Ukraine are uncertain, experts agree on one thing. “In global politics, everyone appears to be always watching,” Gould-Davies said.
