Ukraine expects Russia to mobilize as much as half 1,000,000 extra troopers within the coming months, in accordance with a senior intelligence official.
Vadym Skibitskyi, deputy head of Ukrainian Protection Intelligence, asserted in an interview that “Russia goes to mobilize 300,000 to 500,000 folks so as to perform offensive operations within the south and east of Ukraine in spring and summer season of 2023.”
“These 500,000 are along with the 300,000 mobilized in October 2022,” Skibitskyi stated. “This proves that Putin’s Kremlin has no intention of ending this warfare. The Russian offensive could occur in Donetsk and Luhansk areas and presumably in Zaporizhzhia area. Russian troops will go on the defensive in Kherson area and in Crimea. This new mobilization wave will last as long as two months.”
Russian officers have persistently denied that one other mobilization is deliberate. However at a convention in December of Russia’s navy chiefs, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed beefing up the armed forces to 1.5 million fight personnel from the present 1.15 million over a interval of three years.
This was required “to ensure the fixing of issues associated to Russia’s navy safety”, Shoigu stated.
Skibytskyi additionally stated that initially of 2022, Protection Intelligence was conscious {that a} “full-scale invasion was to start in early February or a bit later….In January we noticed troops from Russia’s Japanese Army District start arriving in Belarus,” in addition to preparations in Crimea.
On the time Ukraine publicly performed down the prospect of a Russian invasion.
Within the interview with “Ukrainian Applied sciences and Methods,” Skibytskyi stated that “the primary days into the warfare have been unfavorable for us, the enemy had superior proper as much as Mariupol. However it’s the resilience of Mariupol that ruined the Russian plans within the south of the nation.”
He stated that the protection of Mariupol had slowed down 10,000 to 12,000 enemy troops that had been earmarked for a push northwards to encircle Ukrainian forces defending the Donbas area. “Mariupol had performed its half one hundred pc,” Skibytskyi stated.
He additionally claimed that the Russians have been now “having appreciable troubles with missiles. They used to provide no more than 200 missiles per yr relying on a kind. Now they’ll solely produce 4 Iskander missiles per 30 days. As for the Kh-101 missiles, it may be one thing like 20-30 relying on the shares of imported elements.”
The Iskander is a robust and comparatively correct cruise missile.
Western analysts have additionally stated they estimate that Russia is operating low on inventories of some missiles.
Skibytskyi additionally offered a Ukrainian evaluation of Russia’s offensive drone program. “As of at the moment. they’ve used about 660 Shahed drones. The contract supplies for 1,750 models. Supply and preparation additionally takes a while. In accordance with our information, they’re about to have one other batch for supply.”
