Opinion | A Take a look at for the European Union within the Balkans

The European Parliament authorised a report on July 6 demanding that Belgrade acknowledge Kosovo as a “precondition of EU accession,” by no means thoughts that 5 members—Cyprus, Greece, Hungary, Slovakia and Spain, which all have their very own territorial disputes—additionally refuse to take action. A subsequent

Ipsos

ballot discovered solely 35% of Serbians supported EU membership, which beforehand had strong majority backing.

Requested whether or not his nation would consent to the demand, President

Aleksandar Vučić

gave a response dripping in sarcasm. “Properly, decently, politely: We gained’t,” he stated. “To be much more well mannered: We gained’t think about it.” The president stated he has “exhausted the reservoir of respectable solutions” on Kosovo’s independence, nonetheless an open wound after its secession from Serbia in 2008.

But having geared Serbia so closely towards the EU lately, Mr. Vučić would trigger an enormous financial shock if he backed out now. He admitted as a lot when he pleaded along with his fellow Serbs to “view issues rationally” over the EU’s new Kosovo calls for. “Can we do with out Europe and its investments?” he requested. “We’ve to be cheap sufficient in order that our feelings don’t prevail.”

The North Atlantic Treaty Group’s bombing marketing campaign in the course of the Kosovo Warfare in 1999 left the Kosovo query indelibly linked with Serbian resentment in opposition to the West. Russia, for its half, has at all times refused to acknowledge the breakaway state—as have EU states with territorial disputes of their very own. However in mild of

Vladimir Putin’s

invasion of Ukraine in February, the bloc’s leaders really feel a accountability to settle the dispute as soon as and for all.

They imagine they will obtain this by way of sheer financial persuasion. The EU is much and away Belgrade’s greatest investor and most necessary buying and selling companion. Since changing into an EU candidate nation, Serbia has been the beneficiary of billions in euro-backed loans and grants. Russia’s political and cultural sway over the nation stays sturdy, however with regards to financial affect, there may be merely no contest.

Mr. Vučić’s feedback make one factor clear. For Serbia, EU accession would imply sacrificing id for cash. Centuries of nationwide myth-building lie beneath trendy resentment of Kosovo, which is on the coronary heart of a Christian folklore surrounded by themes of Serbian martyrdom and oppression. Certainly, many Serbians would see their nation’s embrace of EU membership as a craven betrayal.

Backed right into a nook by EU calls for, Mr. Vučić has lashed out at Kosovo, claiming the nation is planning to expel Serbs from its northern area. Serbia’s protection minister prompted a nationalist backlash lately by advocating the creation of a “Serbian world” involving “the unification of all Serbs” into one state.

Serbia isn’t the one nation during which EU accession is stoking previous conflicts. Violent protests have erupted in North Macedonia over the bloc’s proposal to defuse ethnocultural tensions with neighboring EU member Bulgaria. For years Bulgaria has blocked membership negotiations over its refusal to just accept the existence of a separate Macedonian historical past and language.

The EU’s proposal to interrupt the logjam caters to Bulgarian needs, obliging North Macedonia to rewrite its structure to incorporate a point out of the nation’s Bulgarian minority. The proposal, initially described as “unacceptable” by North Macedonia’s prime minister, was subsequently accepted by the federal government and authorised by Parliament on Saturday—though passing the required constitutional change could show a significant hurdle.

One former Macedonian overseas minister described the nation’s highway to the EU as “utterly depending on satisfying Bulgarian calls for,” whereas the chief of the opposition laments that “the Bulgarization of our society has develop into the primary situation for entry.”

Some Balkan political consultants declare that politicians ought to go away these ostensibly arcane disputes to lecturers and as an alternative give attention to the “extra sensible considerations” of EU membership and its advantages. However such arguments miss the essential level. As demonstrations in opposition to the proposed cope with Bulgaria show, many North Macedonians would fortunately forgo EU cash if it’s conditioned on bartering away their sense of nationwide legitimacy.

In each Serbia and North Macedonia, EU growth is based on the assumption that financial arguments should in the end outweigh nationalist fervor. The EU believes it has an obligation to resolve these long-running conflicts, however options should in the end be discovered within the Balkans, not in Brussels.

Mr. Nattrass is a British journalist and commentator based mostly in Prague.