Normally, German elections are boring, but this one isn’t.

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Ahead of the German election, Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in second place in opinion polls, at around 22%, behind the CDU/CSU conservatives, on 30%.

The partners who make up the current red-green-yellow “traffic light” government are all lagging behind – the SPD Social Democrats are on 17%, and the Greens are on 13%. The smaller Liberal FDP joins the far-left Linke and BSW Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance in struggling to reach the 5% threshold to qualify for parliament.

As elsewhere in Europe, economic contraction and immigration are central issues in the German campaign along with the Ukraine war and relations with the disruptive Trump administration. Elon Musk has interfered in German politics, as much as he has in Britain. Musk hosted the AfD co-leader Alice Weidel on X.

Times have changed. None of these issues were top priorities for Chancellor Angela Merkel, who retired less than four years ago after 16 years in power.

Merkel is remembered for her decision in 2015 to take in over a million migrants mainly from Syria with the slogan “wir schaffen das” – “we can do it”. Since then the mood has soured and tensions have been rising.

There have recently been several deadly attacks, with migrants identified as the suspects – including earlier this week in Munich, at the Magdeburg Christmas market, and a stabbing in Aschafftenburg.

AfD’s rise is acutely sensitive because of Germany’s Nazi past.

Its popularity is rising but in opinion polls, two-thirds of Germans regard it as a threat to democracy, and 40% would like the party to be shut down.

The leadership disassociates itself but some of its supporters have brandished swastikas.

One of the party’s campaign adverts includes two blonde parents raising their arms to form a symbolic roof over their two blonde children.

Like Musk’s gesture at Donald Trump’s victory rally in January, their pose reminds many of the Heil Hitler salute.

Farage keeping his distance

Two of Europe’s far-right parties, France’s National Rally and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Mussolini-linked Fratelli d’Italia, insisted on a “clean break” and kicked AfD out of their European Parliament caucus.

Reform UK’s Nigel Farage has also so far kept his distance from the AfD.

The AfD has some influential international admirers. Ten days ahead of the elections, Hungary’s Victor Orban hosted Alice Weidel and described her party as Germany’s future.

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Musk urges far-right supporters to move beyond ‘past guilt’

Billionaire Musk, who has emerged as President Trump‘s right-hand man, appeared on screen recently at a major AfD rally to endorse the party and tell its supporters that there was “too much focus on past guilt” and that “only the AfD can save Germany”.

Germany’s main political parties have long supported a “firewall”, working together to exclude far-right parties from determining national policy.

This is why the two main TV debates during the campaign have been confined to head-to-heads between the CDU and SPD chancellor candidates. The second debate between Friedrich Merz and Olaf Scholz, the current chancellor, is on 19 February. There was nothing in their first encounter to rule out another grand coalition between their two parties.

CDU leader Merz, and most likely the next chancellor, recently oversaw a breach in the firewall. He relied on AfD votes to pass an anti-immigrant measure in parliament. Angela Merkel, who has had a career-long feud with Merz, denounced his move as “wrong” and the CDU’s poll lead dipped a couple of points.

AfD probably won’t win this time

The AfD is not expecting to win this year’s elections. Like Reform UK, it is predicting that its breakthrough into government will come in four years’ time at the next general election.

It only entered parliament in 2017 and is currently polling more than double its vote share at the election in 2021. The assumptions underpinning German politics would be in ruins if it is the largest party next Sunday.

There will be headaches enough for the other parties if as expected the AfD comes a strong second. Merz has ruled out a coalition with the AfD.

But as with the Conservatives in the UK, the temptation will be there to try to build an alliance on the right, bringing in the extremists.

More likely, there will be a weak coalition between mainstream parties that do not agree with each other, while AfD and others continue to make hay on the fringes.

Ultra-nationalism may gain further momentum

Merz has pledged to bolster Germany’s international standing and support for Ukraine by meeting with his French and Polish opposite numbers in the so-called Weimar Alliance on day one in office.

The UK government committed itself to a “Weimar +” declaration last week opposing Donald Trump’s warm approach to Vladimir Putin of Russia.

Unless European governments, including those in Germany and the UK, can find ways to restore their economies to health and are really prepared to step up their national defences, for themselves and their neighbours, the ultra-nationalism embodied by Trump and the AfD, and the yearning for strong leaders, may yet gather further momentum.