THE EU referendum race is getting too shut for consolation. In The Economist’s poll-of-polls, Depart is forward by two factors. A survey revealed by ORB on Friday gave it a ten-point lead, sending the pound to a two-month low in opposition to the greenback; one by TNS in the present day places its benefit at seven factors. Betting odds that used to place the likelihood of a Stay win above 80% now place it at some 60%.
Indicators from the marketing campaign path level an analogous manner. Labour MPs say they’re shocked on the ranges of Euroscepticism they’re encountering of their constituencies; therefore Mr Cameron has stepped again considerably this week to let distinguished left-of-centre figures take the limelight. Brexiteers who beforehand pooh-poohed the notion that they could win now say they’ll do it.
Can they? It’s true: the polls have narrowed in latest weeks. However look beneath the headline figures and there are causes to remain sanguine—for now, a minimum of.
First, take the ORB ballot: an outlier, even by the requirements of latest figures. Even that exhibits that extra folks suppose Stay will win than do Depart. That’s telling. Previous elections recommend that whereas folks inform pollsters they plan to vote for the choice they reckon is extra popularly acceptable, they undertaking their very own deeper instincts onto others: so “Depart supporters” who inform pollsters that Stay will win could in the end vote Stay.
Second, thousands and thousands of voters stay undecided: 13% in line with our ballot tracker. After weeks of newspaper studies dominated by Depart arguments and in a well-liked surroundings wherein help for Depart appears extra acceptable than Stay, are these voters actually shy Leavers? It appears extra possible that these not but persuaded by both aspect will err in the direction of the safer choice, Stay, within the privateness of the polling sales space.
Third, referendums just like the one on June twenty third are likely to reveal extra help for the established order than the polls that precede them. That, a minimum of, was the result of seven of ten latest referendums studied by Stephen Fisher and Alan Renwick, political scientists. From the vote on a Welsh Meeting in 1997 to that on a brand new electoral system in 2011 or the one on Scottish independence in 2014, the pollsters have usually overstated backing for the “change” choice.
Fourth, suppose again to final yr’s basic election. The ultimate polls put the Tories and Labour neck-and-neck. Some even urged that the opposition was forward. However on the day the Conservatives received their first majority for 23 years. The headline figures, it transpired, had been a poorer information to well-liked opinion than polls asking voters which celebration they trusted on the financial system and which chief they thought ought to turn out to be prime minister (these pointed to a Tory victory). The equal on this referendum could become the salience battle between the financial system (on which Stay leads) and immigration (on which Depart does). Polls recommend that voters nonetheless care extra in regards to the pound within the pocket than the Lithuanian within the vegetable area and, furthermore, that Stay’s lead on jobs and prosperity has grown because the marketing campaign has superior.
Fifth, in such moments—when confronted by a alternative between an imperfect establishment and a leap into the darkish—Britons have, up to now, not often chosen the latter. To defy that custom, Depart has to disguise a vote to stop the EU because the safer, extra small-c conservative choice. But right here too, the polling (judging by YouGov’s tracker) means that the marketing campaign has failed. For all its bogus claims that Turkey will quickly be a part of the EU, I’ve but to see proof that it has persuaded voters that the risks of continuous within the membership are larger. That the majority voters rightly contemplate the selection earlier than them on June twenty third extra vital than that at a basic election means that they are going to be significantly risk-averse subsequent week.
On Sunday night I had a dialog that I believe typifies how undecided voters really feel. I’m loath to cite taxi drivers (it feels too straightforward, too apparent a journalistic conceit) however accomplish that now as a result of what my driver within the outskirts of Southend, on the Thames Estuary, instructed me could shed some gentle on wider attitudes. I requested him how he would vote within the referendum if placed on the spot. He responded, with out hesitation, that he wished Britain to Depart. Then he began speaking about his life. His Dad, a London black cab driver, now needed to battle off competitors from immigrant Uber drivers from the EU, he complained. Up to now, so Brexiteer. However as our dialog continued, he began to mirror on his household and its future; weighing the choices. “The factor is,” he instructed me: “I’ve a roof over my head. I can nearly pay my payments. £100 extra every week doesn’t imply a lot to me. However £100 much less can be horrible.” So I requested him: “How will you really vote on June twenty third?” There was a protracted silence as we rumbled alongside the suburban Essex streets. “Don’t suppose I’d take the chance, to be sincere. I suppose I’d vote Keep.”
This was a one-off dialog. It happened in Leigh-on-Sea, a reasonably snug a part of Southend. But this was the kind of place that decides elections; not wealthy however actually not poor, neither city nor rural, as middle-class as working-class. Most attention-grabbing was {that a} voter keen to inform me, upfront, that he wished to depart the EU was then completely glad to say the alternative as soon as he had spent a couple of minutes speaking about his kin and their prospects. A very good signal for Stay? Maybe. However, at least, a suggestion that the battle will not be but misplaced.
