CNN’s Decision Desk predicts that former Republican state representative Jack Ciattarelli and four-term Democratic congressman Mikie Sherrill have been nominated by their parties for governor of New Jersey.

Following Tuesday’s results, one of the two potentially contested gubernatorial contests this year—along with Virginia—will be a crucial indicator of President Donald Trump’s job performance and a gauge of the fervor in both parties leading up to the midterm elections next year.

The president has already played a major role in the campaigns of both candidates.

Five other candidates, all of whom campaigned as warriors who would fight back against the anarchy of Washington, were defeated by Sherrill, a former Navy helicopter pilot. With Trump’s support, Ciattarelli, who came just short in his 2021 gubernatorial campaign, secured the nomination once more.

Both races saw record-breaking turnouts for New Jersey’s gubernatorial primary.

In November, historic tendencies could work in Democrats’ advantage. With the exception of incumbent Democratic Governor Phil Murphy, who was re-elected in 2021, one year after Joe Biden won the president, New Jersey voters have routinely chosen the gubernatorial candidate from the party out of power in Washington in recent decades. Murphy’s ability to seek another term is restricted.

Sherrill bests a crowded Democratic

Sherrill, who has been viewed as a rising star in the party since she won a long-standing GOP seat during the president’s first term in office, is no stranger to running against Trump’s ideas.

Before running for Congress for the first time in 2017, Sherrill served in the Navy for over ten years and briefly served as a federal prosecutor. In order to capitalize on anti-Trump enthusiasm, the political rookie was one of hundreds of Democrats, many of whom were women, who campaigned on their backgrounds in national security and public service. Jay Webber, a Republican state assemblyman, lost to Sherrill by over 15 points.

Sherrill identified with a moderate group of newly elected Democrats who had also defeated Republican representatives, despite being in the same rookie class as Democratic Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and other liberal members of “The Squad.” In the Democratic caucus, she joined the conservative Blue Dog and centrist New Democrat coalitions. She was also a member of the group of Democrats with military and national security backgrounds that helped garner widespread support for Trump’s initial impeachment.

Sherrill’s message focused on cutting expenses for voters in New Jersey and presenting herself as a tough opponent of Trump.

Ciattarelli will count on Trump’s support

Ciattarelli’s ability to win over Trump supporters and win over those who have not embraced the president and his policies will probably determine if he can win in November.

Ciattarelli told his supporters Tuesday night, “Along the way, we also made a strong statement of what our New Jersey Republican Party stands for, a party open to anyone and everyone who’s willing to work hard and play by the rules, a party of Jersey values and common sense policies, a party that believes our best days are ahead of us, if we have the courage to think big and act boldly.”

Supporters of Ciattarelli held up posters that said, “It’s Time!” and “Mikie Made Millions,” alluding to the backlash Sherrill has faced for trading stocks while serving in Congress. Support for Trump was a source of controversy during heated debates and in commercials. Citing their respective critiques of Trump at different moments in their lengthy history of public comments, Ciattarelli and conservative radio presenter Bill Spadea engaged in a recurring argument about their loyalty to the president.

Ciattarelli’s commercial, which capitalized on soundbites of Spadea saying Trump shouldn’t run in 2024, said, “Bill Spadea attacks Donald Trump.” “President Trump values loyalty,” Spadea stated in one of his advertisements, echoing Ciattarelli’s criticism of Trump during his ascent in the 2016 election.

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